The Best Offer Is The Simplest

We’re well into the millions on ad spend for our clients at K&J.

We’ve tried dozens of marketing tactics to drive sales over the year.

• Refer a friend with a special code

• Share to your socials for a chance to win

• Tag three mates and send us a DM to win

• Giveaways

• Mystery boxes

All of these things have a place, but the thing that we’ve found the most effective for getting people to buy from you?

Discounting & limited time windows.

Here is an example of one of our clients’ ad accounts over Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

We drove $40,000+ in revenue over 12 days.

What did we do?

1. We ran ads that had a discount of 15% + free shipping

   

   This copy was on every ad we ran - static & video

2. We set up a banner on the website that showed the sale was a limited-time offer
   

3. We displayed the discount on the product page & it was automatically added when someone added the product to their cart
   

4. We published social media posts talking about the sale
   

   

   Example of the social media post copy

5. We sent out four emails:
   
   - When the sale launched
   - 72 hours before the sale finishes
   - 24 hours before the sale finishes
   - 12 hours before the sale finishes

I don’t want people to get the wrong idea; this doesn’t just happen out of the blue.

We’ve been working with this client for over a year now, and we’ve helped build other things that make the brand great:

1. An entire UGC strategy that’s generated over 900K views

2. Optimised their conversion rates on the site

3. Built & implemented SEO & GEO strategies

4. Tested over 550 different ads

5. Helped hire content managers

The groundwork was done, so the simple offer would make it easy for people to buy when the time was right.

Simple works best once you’ve laid the right foundations.

Forecasting

Forecasting is judgement over time.

It’s seeing if you can extend your judgement from “right thing right now” vs “right thing for 3 months from now”.

And it’s obviously super useful to be good at this for business.

With good forecasting you can go from chasing the puck to skating to where the puck is.

It helps you make the right hires at the right times. Invest in the right assets. Make the right changes to your ad spend.

The predictive markets popping up all over the place like polymarket are an interesting play on this forecasting and a great way to test your forecasting skills.

I’ve gotten better at forecasting by making predictions, recording my reasoning and comparing this to outcomes.

Polymarket goes further as it makes to place a bet on your prediction.

Most people don’t do this. They lie to themselves.

People predicting the Ai bubble burst at the moment is a good example.

Everyone is predicting it’ll burst and when it does, they’ll all say I told you so. But very few are predicting the when or the why. And then when and the why is the only thing that matters when it comes to predicting.

That’s the difference between a guess and coming to a logical conclusion.

And it’s the difference between people who are good at forecasting and those who get lucky every now and then.